Question 7988 – Engineering-Mathematics

P and Q are considering to apply for job. The probability that p applies for job is 1/4. The probability that P applies for job given that Q applies for the job 1/2 and The probability that Q applies for job given that P applies for the job 1/3.The probability that P does not apply for job given that Q does not apply for the job

Correct Answer: A

Question 49 Explanation:

Probability that ‘P’ applies for a job = 1/4 = P(p) ⇾ (1)
Probability that ‘P’ applies for the job given that Q applies for the job = P(p/q) = 1/2 ⇾ (2)
Probability that ‘Q’ applies for the job, given that ‘P’ applies for the job = P(p/q) = 1/3 ⇾ (3)
Bayes Theorem:
(P(A/B) = (P(B/A)∙P(A))/P(B) ; P(A/B) = P(A∩B)/P(B))
⇒ P(p/q) = (P(q/p)∙P(p))/p(q)
⇒ 1/2 = (1/3×1/4)/p(q)
p(q) = 1/12×2 = 1/(6) (P(q) = 1/6) ⇾ (4)
From Bayes,
P(p/q) = (P(p∩q))/(P(q))
1/2 = P(p∩q)/(1⁄6)
(p(p∩q) = 1/12)

We need to find out the “probability that ‘P’ does not apply for the job given that q does not apply for the job = P(p’/q’)
From Bayes theorem,
P(p’/q’) = (P(p’∩q’))/P(q’) ⇾ (5)
We know,
p(A∩B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A∪B)
also (P(A’∩B’) = 1 – P(A∪B))
P(p’∩q’) = 1 – P(p∪q)
= 1 – (P(p) + P(q) – P(p∩q))
= 1 – (P(p) + P(q) – P(p) ∙ P(q))
= 1 – (1/4 + 1/6 – 1/12)
= 1 – (10/24 – 2/24)

= 1 – (8/24)

= 2/3
(P(p’∩q’) = 2/3) ⇾ (6)
Substitute in (5),
P(p’⁄q’) = (2⁄3)/(1-P(q)) = (2⁄3)/(1-1/6) = (2⁄3)/(5⁄6) = 4/5
(P(p’/q’) = 4/5)